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Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

22nd SEPTEMBER NIFTY VIEW

Out of the last 9 days of trading, Nifty Future has made new high on 8 of the day. Today was no exception. Though Nifty Future made a new high to 6046 in the early trades, Nifty Future remained muted thereafter and made a low of 5972 and closed at 6012. At best today's movement can be termed as Nifty Future taking a breather after such a big run. As of today, there is nothing to suggest that Nifty Future has topped out or even is considering a correction. Interestingly, for the past 8 days it has not even broken below the previous day's low. I am giving so much detail just to illustrate the money power underlying the current phase of the market. Considering the strength shown in the past few days, please do not expect the market to loose steam overnight - unless ofcourse theree is some unexpected event.

For tomorrow, I would repeat that the resistance level of 6075 could be an important level. One can consider short positions below 5970 with stop loss of 6000. On the down side, it will find support at 5944 - 5900 and 5840 will provide trend line support shown on the EOD Chart. Tomorrow is also an important Gann turn date and hence can be eventful day. As i have been mentioning for some time now, this week could provide a possible turn around and tomorrow has good possibility to do that.

All the best

ALERT

SORRY GUYS .... TODAY ME BIT BUSY .....

ANYWAZZZZZZ.....


FINALLY NIFTY CROSSED 6000 MARK...... SENSEX 20,000 MARK.

FOR INVESTORS :DON'T BUY @ THIS LEVEL ....and DON'T INVEST STOCKMARKETS NOW.

FOR TRADERS : BUY NIFTY .....NIFTY TODAY ALSO VERY STRONG @ 6000 LEVELS ALSO ... BELLOW 5940 ONLY ONE CAN ATTEMPT SHORT ...... NOW BUY @ 6000 LEVEL SL 5970 TARGET 6070 -6150

Monday, September 20, 2010

U.S. recession ended June 2009, NBER finds Downturn of 18 months ranks as longest since end of World War Two

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009, qualifying the 18-month slump as the longest since the Great Depression, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Yet the NBER also cautioned that its findings bear no relation to the current state of the economy nor do they represent a forecast about the future. If another downturn occurs anytime soon, the NBER said, it would constitute a separate recession. See NBER statement.

The NBER, founded in 1920, is a nonprofit group entrusted by the government with determining when recessions begin and end. The Boston-based group includes leading economists in business, academia and trade unions.

It said the economy bottomed out in June 2009, followed by a slow expansion. Previously, the longest recessions in the modern era lasted 16 months -- one in 1973-75 and another in 1981-82.

James Poterba, president of the NBER, said a plunge in household wealth, as well as financial crises in the U.S. and overseas, contributed to the long duration of the recession.

“It’s the combination of financial shocks that hit the economy,” he said.

The NBER’s findings are unlikely to be greeted with any fanfare. Although the U.S. economy expanded at a sharp 5.0% pace in the final three months of 2009, growth in gross domestic product slowed to 3.7% in the first quarter and 1.6% in the second quarter -- renewing concerns about whether another downturn is in the cards.

The nation’s unemployment rate of 9.6%, meanwhile, remains stuck near a 27-high. And more than 16% of all working-age Americans lack a good job when the data include people who have given up looking for work or who can only find a part-time position.

Why Are Women Leaving Wall Street?

Kelsey Hubbard talks with Kyle Stock, senior reporter at FINS, about research that shows such a trend.

“For the typical American family, the economy is still stagnant,” said economist Lawrence Katz of Harvard. “There is very little sign of widespread prosperity.”

Most economists doubt the U.S. will plunge into another recession, but few expect growth to accelerate sharply again absent a big increase in hiring or consumer spending. Worried about the future, many Americans have cut spending to reduce their debt or increased their savings.

Businesses have also turned cautious: The Federal Reserve reported on Friday that large U.S. companies continue to maintain a record $18.4 trillion stockpile of cash or other liquid investments. Lackluster business investment has been another drag on the economy. See related story on cash holdings and changes in families’ net worth.

The NBER alluded to the current economic weakness in its declaration.

“In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity,” the firm said. “Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.”

Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington. Ruth Mantell is a MarketWatch reporter based in Washington.

21st SEPTEMBER NIFTY VIEW.

The rise in Nifty Futures seems to be a one way game - 650 points in 14 trading sessions (Avg run rate of 46 per day). This (possibly) last leg of the rise reminds me of Twenty20 cricket match where the last over is meant for hit out or get out. For the market students its the best practical example to experience what money power can do.

There is not much to say in these circumstances except that 6010 and 6075 can be resistance levels. But considering the US markets at the time of writing, be prepared for continuation of today's game. Will it continue this way for a long time - the answer is a definite NO. Either the buyers will have to rationalise their thinking as the market goes higher or there could be some event which forces the participants to revise their thinking. As such, new high on the first day of the week reaffirms my thinking that this week could provide a turning point as stated in my last weekly post.

As per the Turning Points Grid 5950 is the first level, below which weakness may start. However, in the current market mood it is better to be on the buy side and benefit from the rally or be a bystander and let the storm pass. I feel not doing anything at such irrational times is a safer and better option. If you recall, mood in the last weeks of 2007 was very similar. As such no market can go up/down continuously - this 14 day period itself seems to be overstretched to me.

ALERT

RCOM 2nd target also hit .... book full profits

Reliance calls blasted......hold with revise sl .... more to come.

SUGAR STOCKS ALL BLASTED......HOLD SL .. MORE TO COME.

DLF BLASTED.......... MORE TO COME .... HOLD

MLL HOLD.


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